Post-Holiday SS Futures Retreat After Rapid Rise, Weak Stainless Steel Fundamentals Constrain Market Trends [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]

SMM October 10, SS futures showed a trend of falling and pulling back. Driven by the overall weakness in metal futures, SS futures followed the decline, once falling below 12,800 yuan/mt during the session. In the spot market, during the first week after the holiday, industry participants gradually resumed work, but the spot market continued the sluggish trend seen before the holiday, with downstream end-users maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude towards purchases. Although LME nickel prices rose during the holiday period due to macro tailwinds, and domestic metal futures generally probed higher after the holiday, the fundamentals of stainless steel remained weak, leading to a quick pullback after the initial rise, with overall spot price fluctuations being relatively small.

On the futures side, the most-traded contract 2511 strengthened and probed higher. At 10:30 am, SS2511 was quoted at 12,780 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, the spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 340-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was reported at 8,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled mill edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi was 13,100 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was 13,100 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi, the price was 25,650 yuan/mt, and in Foshan it was 25,650 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the price in both locations was reported at 24,950 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled 430/2B coil, the price in both Wuxi and Foshan was 7,600 yuan/mt.

During the first week after the holiday, the domestic stainless steel market was generally in a holiday state during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, with shipments and inbound/outbound logistics restricted, and spot trading suspended. However, starting from the middle of the holiday period, LME nickel futures prices rose consecutively, driving up nickel and stainless steel futures prices and boosting market confidence. Currently, there is a significant divergence between the fundamentals of the stainless steel market and macro expectations. From a macro perspective, the US government shutdown during the holiday period spurred safe-haven demand for funds, pushing up overall commodity futures prices. Coupled with expectations for two more US Fed interest rate cuts within the year, the overall environment is favorable for commodity prices. However, the fundamentals of stainless steel appear somewhat weak. Although it is still the traditional peak consumption season of September-October, downstream demand recovery is limited, market trading is relatively sluggish, and social inventory has shown a trend of stopping declines and rebounding. Furthermore, prices of raw materials like high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome have softened, leading to a weakening cost support for stainless steel. Going forward, attention should remain on the realization of macro news and changes in downstream demand.